I think it’s a travesty that Caltrain runs on diesel.

I don’t know what my point is.

And I agree that the oil spill sucks. That said, I am interested in spirited debate about what the effects of it are likely to be.

In that vein, I don’t think the Gulf will be a visibly toxic place 20 years from now. The ocean eats oil slowly, and that’s exactly what will happen. The oil will destroy the ecosystem in several ways, and then the ocean will eat the oil. We will have the same gulf, with less ecosystem.

Here’s what I think the real effects are:
* Jobs will be lost, but not on a scale that’s unfamiliar to us.
* Local food culture will be lost, but not on a scale that’s unfamiliar to us.
* Ocean ecosystems will be lost, but not on a scale that’s unfamiliar to us.
* Communities will come together to try and save coastal ecosystems, but they will be severely damaged. Marshes that once had birds won’t.
* Large animals will die out, leaving smaller, more anonymous life forms. Algal blooms, minnows, etc.
* Millions of animal souls will be tortured and snuffed out.

In the end, I think the damage done will be far, far less than many of the other terrible things that are happening under our noses.

And honestly, at a cultural level, we will have forgotten this event by 2020. With luck we will change the laws for the better quickly now, while there is political capital to do so.

But I have to be honest, I am pretty sure the oil companies will use this as an opportunity to push through some “reforms” of their own.